The Stars have their 66 Million Dollar Man...

But is Jake Oettinger the guy to bring the Cup back to Dallas?

Stars Goalie Jake Oettinger

Ralph’s note to readers:

This is the first (but certainly not the last) collaborative post for me on SubStack.  David Castillo and I became fast friends over the phone some weeks back.  I knew of David and get a lot from his Stars posts, so I reached out.  Next thing you know, he’s on a plane to come see me and help me get my SubStack launched.

I know a bunch about hockey and the Stars, that’s inarguable.  But try as I have, I’m still not as fluent in as much of the new data tracking and analytic metrics on the sport and the athletes.  Although I’m super into it.  I’ve used my own set of metrics over the years to try to understand the variables and predict what’s likely to happen.  So, what about Jake Oettinger then… - David??

David’s note to readers:

Thanks Ralph! 

Ralph is under the mistaken impression that I can peer into some black box and hear its mathematical whispers. I can’t, but that’s not to say I don’t enjoy the challenge. 

You don’t have to read Ulysses to evaluate skaters. If they give you a lot of points, they’re great. If they don’t, fancy stats can clarify different spectrums of support. It’s obviously not that simple, but it is compared to evaluating goalies. Ralph is asking for far more than he realizes, but I think I got something.  

The Setup

Jake Oettinger signed an 8-year, $66 M contract extension with the Dallas Stars on October 17, 2024.  There’s a lot to this story including;

-       Jake would have been an RFA at the end of the season.

-       Boston got Jeremy Swayman done at a comparable number.

-       New York was trying to do the same with Igor Sheststerkin.

-       The Stars are very close to having what they need to win another Cup.

-       Is this the right number for Oettinger? 

-       Will the Stars get value for their money?

-       He’s off to a great regular season start… what does that mean?

As interesting as these things are – we’re going to focus solely on the following question:

Does Jake Oettinger’s playoff performances to date indicate that he’s the guy who can WIN Dallas another Stanley Cup?

In my view, he has not demonstrated this yet.  I’ll go deep here on why I have concerns about his ability to get it done in the playoffs, but I want to hear from David and what the data reveals.

Ralph’s Case – Overview

Start with this – the playoffs are a COMPLETELY different animal than the regular season.  You already know this.

It follows that some players thrive in that blast furnace, and others melt away. 

Your goalie has to thrive.  He has to be a difference maker pretty much every night.  Yes, there’s a team in front of him and all that plays, but at the end of the day he’s gotta carry it, set the tone, let his teammates know (by his play) that he’s gonna do this and they better friggin jump in it with him.  He has to defeat his opponents not only on the scoresheet, but in their heads.  He’s gotta scare em.  Plant seeds of doubt.  Make saves he shouldn’t make. Steal games he shouldn’t win.

All Cup winners do this. 

Jake Oettinger hasn’t done this yet.